Australia are the defending champions of the T20 world cup and will now try to win it at home. Despite all this they may not be favourites with their team having a few issues. I decided to look at their squad and see where the strength and weakness are.
Batting
For most stats I will look from 1 Jan 2021 onwards, however for Steve Smith who doesn’t have the biggest sample size I also looked at 2020 onwards so he will have two sets of data.
First method of evaluation comes from balls per dismissal and strike rate. These two stats are what a team should be built on, too low a Bpd makes a team inconsistent while too high a Bpd can mean the lower order batters are under utilised.
The line is 120/7 which shows how likely a top seven will face all 120 balls. Here we can see the Australian top seven would most likely face all 120 balls easily, so the need for an anchor is reduced.
Finch is heavily out of form, struggling for speed or batting time, in a similar issue is Steve Smith. Finch is nearly 36 and age related issues are to be expected. While Smith was never a fantastic T20 player and recently has dropped vs pace.
Looking at this graph the 5 key players are: Warner, Marsh, David, Maxwell and Inglis. These 5 combine for an expected 175.39 (119.05). So the final two batting spots should be strengthen a weakness either against a match up or a bowling weakness.
Pace and Spin
When constructing a line up a few important notes
Middle order batters need to be good vs spin
A mix of right and left handed batters is useful
Top three batters will face pace but also a decent amount of spin
Pace is mainly used in the final four to five overs
So who is good vs pace?
Marsh is superb vs pace averaging over 50 and scoring at over 150. Inglis and Maxwell are both past the 35/145 mark against it showing a level of domination.
In terms of high variance attacking Wade and David both score at around 160+ though both average below 30. Both have superb death records since 2021, David scoring at 205 and Wade scoring at 195.18.
Looking at the inverse Smith has been anaemic vs pace for a while. Since 2020 he’s 23/131 and more recently he’s been worse. Stoinis has also struggled to score a lot of runs while not scoring quite as quickly as you’d want with that average.
What about Spin?
Warner is one of the all-time great batters vs spin in T20 and a 56.6/141 record since 2021 is superb. Stoinis and David are strong vs spin as well both scoring quickly and averaging over 30.
Inglis and Maxwell are aggressive vs spin but are dismissed a lot more often so could match up well with slower scorers.
Out of all the batters to face 300+ balls of spin since 2021, only three score slower than Wade 98.70. This means when not opening he is a massive risk, unless he bats at seven. Finch is also very weak vs spin, however opening with Warner reduces this.
Smith doesn’t get out to spin but neither does he score quickly so he would need to bat with two or three quick scorers vs spin to not be a hindrance.
Placing
Warner, Maxwell and Marsh are the three certain top seven batters. For me two others should be Inglis and David however Australia may think different.
Assuming they open with Finch and Warner, the top 3 should be completed with Marsh. 4/5 would be Maxwell and Inglis. Finally David is perfect for six his ability to hit both spin and pace is rare.
Whether or not to have Wade at seven depends on their bowling options.
Bowling
This chart makes interesting reading, especially regarding Starc who in the last few years has really struggled. Another guy is Cummins whose T20 bowling record has never been spectacular.
On the other hand Agar has been superb, he’s always been economical but recently has become better at taking wickets. Zampa and Hazlewood have been the best for Australia and the other two certain players. Richardson is expensive but good at taking wickets.
Starc
Starc’s form isn’t the easiest to map, in 2021 he bowled 300 balls compared to 333 in the previous 5 years. However in recent years both his average and economy rate have increased by a lot. He will nearly be 33 by the world cup and may have started to lose his touch.
However to choose the best bowlers Australia need to choose the best for each period.
By Period
In the powerplay wickets are vital, early wickets can drastically reduce the opponents final score. Looking at bowlers with 120+ balls since 2021 there are two clear winners:
Hazlewood and Maxwell are superb there, however after that the picture looks bleaker. Cummins and Richardson are as average as each other while Starc has truly struggled here.
Next we have the middle overs where once again wickets are key:
Hazlewood, Richardson and Cummins all perform very well as do Zampa and Agar. Richardson is a run an over more expensive than Cummins. While Maxwell struggles for wickets only Zampa and Agar are more economical.
Finally the death where Economy rate is more important than anything, min 90 balls
This is where Richardson separates himself from Cummins as a good option. Zampa has a great record while Hazlewood while not fantastic is better than Starc and Cummins who are truly horrific.
Final XI
Assuming Finch won’t be dropped, with Warner, Maxwell, Hazlewood and Zampa as automatic selections. Our top six is from earlier.
Number seven for me should be either Wade or Cummins, both are horrific vs spin but both demolish pace. Both have iconic cameos against pace attacks, Wade’s 41* (17) vs Pakistan and Cummins 56* (15) in the IPL.
Playing Cummins at eight behind Wade is an option, but means Australia would have to choose between Richardson, Agar and Starc. Starc for me should not play, he is incredibly out form. While both Richardson and Agar are good in different periods. However if push comes to shove they should go for Richardson over Agar.
This gives an XI of
Warner
Finch
Marsh
Maxwell
Inglis
David
Cummins/Wade
Agar
Richardson
Hazlewood
Zampa
This XI gives them three pretty decent powerplay options, with Richardson and Cummins capable of two or three overs between the two of them. The middle is filled with options and finally the death where Hazlewood and Richardson could bowl most of those final four.
If Australia make the right decision to drop Finch, Inglis opens and Stoinis comes in as another good scorer vs spin.